(Bloomberg) — European leaders are confronting their worst-case scenario: maybe they really are going to be dealing with a bellicose Russia alone.
When the US lined up alongside Russia and North Korea earlier this week to oppose a UN motion condemning Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, some European officials knew that the transatlantic relationship was in deep trouble. Then they watched in horror as Donald Trump gave Volodymyr Zelenskiy a public dressing down in the Oval Office and something broke.
In interviews with Bloomberg, more than half a dozen officials who’ve maintained their composure through wars and financial crises reacted with visceral anger. For them, the scene showed the trust and values that have bound Europe and the US together since the end of World War II are no longer shared.
“President Trump and his administration raised a more fundamental challenge to the transatlantic alliance than it has faced in many decades,” said Graham Allison, a professor of government at Harvard University, who studied with Henry Kissinger and served in both the Clinton and Reagan administrations.
French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have all described this moment as a generational challenge for the continent. They’ll meet with Zelenskiy and other European leaders in London on Sunday to work out what their next move should be.
The European Union is aiming to follow up with an emergency package of €20 billion ($21 billion) in military aid for Ukraine at an emergency summit in Brussels on Thursday. But that’s just a down payment on the hundreds of billions they will need to mobilize for defense in the coming months if they are to take over responsibility for their own security from the US for the first time in 80 years.
After years of hand-wringing and debates over the EU’s problems and weaknesses, doing that will require forging a political will that has little precedent in the history of the bloc.
“While I would like to imagine that Europe will step up to fill the gap, and do so in time, I’d bet 3-1 against it,” Allison said, adding that he expects Ukraine will accept a bitter peace settlement by the end of the summer.
